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Geregistreerd op: 13 Mrt 2018
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WASHINGTON， Sept. 25 (Xinhua) -- Though recent polls showed a tight race between U.S. Democratic and Republican nominees， Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton， an American historian predicted that Trump will enter the White House by a narrow win.
Allan Lichtman， a history professor at American University， recently explained to the Washington Post about his forecasting method -- "13 Keys to the White House，" which he created more than 30 years ago and applied to get correct predictions for the past elections from 1984 to 2012.
In his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016，" the method reveals to be 13 truefalse sentences:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections， the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreignmilitary failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreignmilitary success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
In an interview with the Washington Post， the distinguished historian said if the 13 sentences get six or more falses， then the ruling party will lose， otherwise， the ruling party will get a new 4-year-term.
The 13 "keys" are not based on "shifting demographics or his own political opinions" but historical patterns， Lichtman said.
The professor predicted Trump would win the 2016 election based on responses to the 13 keys， however， he personally admitted that the Republican candidate makes this year's game the most unpredictable.
He used five clauses beginning with "we've never had (seen) a candidate before who ..." to describe Trump's behavior in the campaign and called him "a maverick" and "a precedent-shattering candidate."
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SAN SALVADOR Mateo Musacchio AC Milan Jersey , Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- Salvadorans go to the polls Sunday to elect a president and a vice president for the next five-year term beginning June 1, 2014.
The following are some key facts about the elections:
The Central American nation is home to some 6.2 million people, of which 4.6 million are registered voters. For the first time Mario Pasalic AC Milan Jersey , Salvadorans living abroad will be able to vote in the elections.
The polls are set to open at 7 a.m. local time (1300 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. (2300 GMT) on Sunday at 10,446 polling stations.
Five candidates are running for the presidency, but the two main contenders are incumbent Vice President and candidate of the ruling left-wing Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) Marco Storari AC Milan Jersey , Salvador Sanchez Ceren, and former San Salvador mayor and candidate of the right-wing National Republican Alliance, Norman Quijano.
If no one wins over 50 percent of the vote Manuel Locatelli AC Milan Jersey , a runoff will be held on March 9.
Sanchez, born on June 18, 1944 M'Baye Niang AC Milan Jersey , is a teacher by training who became a commander of the FMLN leftist guerrilla movement in the 1980s during El Salvador's civil war. The movement later evolved into a political party.
In 2000, he was elected deputy of the FMLN party and reelected twice, in 2003 and 2006. He has been the vice president since 2009.
`Lucas Ocampos AC Milan Jersey , cut the crime rate, promote education, and deepen the reforms initiated by the government of President Mauricio Funes.
Quijano Lucas Biglia AC Milan Jersey , born on Nov. 2, 1946, graduated from the University of El Salvador as a dental surgeon. He went on to enter politics Luca Antonelli AC Milan Jersey , serving as deputy in five legislative periods and mayor of San Salvador from 2009 to 2013.
Quijano has pledged to tackle such issues as employment, poverty and crime, and called for providing the young generation with more opportunities.
More than 4 Leonel Vangioni AC Milan Jersey ,000 local and international observers, including those from the Organization of American States and the European Union, will monitor the elections.
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