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Geregistreerd op: 11 Apr 2017
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| If you had two sets of data, one being a team’s shooting percentage, and the other being a team’s ability to generate shot-attempts, which set would be better in terms of predicting future 5-on-5 goal-scoring ability? At first blush, one may guess the former. Torrey Mitchell Canadiens Jersey . After all, it gives us the percentage of shots on net that result in a goal. The latter set of data only tells us how frequently shots are generated, and tells us little – if anything – about a team’s goal-scoring ability. But, that’s not the case. Plenty of work has been done on this topic, particularly at even-strength. The answer is clear: shot-attempt metrics and puck possession proxies like Corsi are much more predictive than shooting percentage, primarily because shooting percentage is swamped by random variance. It’s important to note that this also holds true for special teams. While many hockey analysts appear to obsess over raw conversion rates, the same above principle – that shot generation is far more predictive of future success (or failure) than shooting percentage – is vital in forecasting future success. Why? Because shooting percentage, even in a power-play situation where scoring chances are aplenty, is not a very repeatable skill. It’s easy to illustrate this by simply grabbing a team’s shooting percentage over the first half of the season, and finding how well it correlates to the team’s shooting percentage over the second half of the season. Taken from the years 2007 through 2011: I included the coefficient of determination (0.01) – or percent of variance explained – to illustrate the randomness in shooting percentage. As you can see, a team’s 5-on-4 shooting percentage through the first 41 games of the season does nothing in terms of telling us how well it will convert on shots over the next 41 games. Shot-attempt generation, we know, is a repeatable 5-on-5 skill. Does the same hold true for 5-on-4? Let’s grab the CorsiFor/60 for the same teams in the above sample, and see if their first-half numbers and second-half numbers show similarity. The graph and coefficient of determination here are much more convincing. A team’s ability to generate (or not generate) shots through the first 41 games will likely carry over to the next 41 games, which means this particular measurement has predictive value – far more than, say, shooting percentage. More than anything else, I think this topic is timely. If you poll members and fans of the National Hockey League as to who the league’s deadliest power-play is right now, I think you’ll get a stunningly similar response in the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, that’s a decent choice – they have a ton of talented forwards, they have exhibited ability to generate shot-attempts with frequency in every game-state, and they have puck-movers on the back-end who can whip the puck through the neutral zone with tempo. All of that is fantastic However, the primary reason I think most would select the Pittsburgh Penguins right now is conveniently tied into the fact that they’ve converted on 31.6% of their power-plays through a 17.54% shooting percentage, second-highest in the league. But, if we are trying to forecast future outcomes, we know to move away from shooting percentages and gravitate towards shot generation. How do the Pittsburgh Penguins look in that aspect of the game? Power Play CorsiFor/60 Rank Team CorsiFor/60 1. Washington Capitals 127.7 2. San Jose Sharks 114.3 3. Arizona Coyotes 113.9 4. Philadelphia Flyers 106.2 5. Chicago Blackhawks 104.2 6. Toronto Maple Leafs 102.5 7. Winnipeg Jets 102.3 8. Detroit Red Wings 101.5 9. Boston Bruins 100.9 10. Ottawa Senators 96.8 11. New York Rangers 95.2 12. Pittsburgh Penguins 95.1 In reality, what we have in Pittsburgh is a good power-play with elite scoring talent. I’m highly skeptical, however, that it’s going to be the best unit by the end of the season, because it still pales in comparison to the units established in Washington (currently 28.8% conversion rate; 2nd) and San Jose (currently a 23.8% conversion rate; 4th), both historically and through the first leg of 2014-2015. Washington’s power-play has been performance art for years, and if nothing else, these early season numbers show the kind of incredible ability they have at blitzing opposing penalty kill units. Their scheme starts with a series of well-designed neutral zone rushes, and almost always features the likes of Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson on the right-side of the ice, with Alex Ovechkin waiting in his one-time wheelhouse for cross-ice passes. Backstrom and Johansson generally engage in sequences of back-and-forth passing to draw the defense deeper towards their own crease, which sets up two other options away from the Ovechkin primary at the blueline. If the defense pays too much respect to Ovechkin, Mike Green, John Carlson, and Matt Niskanen hammer away from the point. And if the defense pays equitable respect to the point shot and Ovechkin, Backstrom and Johansson needle their way deeper into the box of the penalty kill. If teams are looking at ways to improve their power play through modelling the attacking styles around the league, they could do worse than Mike Johnston’s Pittsburgh Penguins. But, right now, the kings of 5-on-4 still reside in the D.C. area. And, the king of predictive utility for power-play performance is still embedded in shot attempts. Stanley Cup Canadiens Jersey Authentic . Playing in his fourth major league game, Polanco broke a tie in the 13th inning with his first homer, helping Pittsburgh to an 8-6 victory over the Miami Marlins after the Pirates had a ninth-inning meltdown. Saku Koivu Canadiens Jersey . According to bodog.ca, Cleveland moved up to grab the best odds to win the Larry OBrian trophy at 4-1 on Friday. By comparison, the Miami Heats odds plummeted from 3-1 favourites before LeBron left, to 50-1. http://www.hockeycanadiensauthority.com/patrick-roy-canadiens-jersey-c-31/ .com) - Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns each scored 12 points in the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats 70-55 victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide.Sofiane Feghouli believes West Ham can achieve something special as they prepare for their first season at the Olympic Stadium. The Algeria winger, who joined the Hammers from Valencia in June, is preparing for his first taste of the Premier League and is currently away with the first-team squad on their pre-season tour of Austria. Feghouli is one of six new signings made by Slaven Bilic this summer, with the West Ham manager keen to strengthen his ranks ahead of the 2016/17 campaign, which will also include Europa League football. The 26-year-old has revealed the ambitious nature of the club lured him to east London and he is hoping to be part of a successful era at the Olympic Stadium. Feghouli is looking forward to playing at the Olympic Stadium The club is incredibly ambitious, and that was my main reason for coming here, Feghouli told the clubs official website. We will be doing all we can to be as competitive as possible in all of the competitions we are involved in.I think with the team we have, the players that will be brought in during the transfer window, combined with our fans, then we can go on to achieve some great things together. Slaven Bilic iis still looking to strengthen his squad further The stadium is magnificent and all the players are excited to play there for the first time in front of so many of our fantastic supporters. Tomas Plekanec Canadiens Jersey Authentic. We all feel privileged to have the opportunity to play in such an exceptional stadium.West Ham will play their first match at their new home on August 4 against either Shakhtyor Soligorsk or Domzale in the Europa League, subject to UEFA approval.They have appealed to UEFA over switching the home and away legs around as the Olympic Stadium will be used for the London Anniversary Games on July 22/23. West Ham first match at the Olympic Stadium will be in the Europa League It usually takes seven days to convert the stadium from athletics mode to football and, with the first leg set to take place on July 28, West Ham have asked for the venue of the legs to be switched. They have held positive talks with both clubs and are now awaiting final confirmation from UEFA. West Hams first Premier League match at the Olympic Stadium will be against Bournemouth on August 21, live on Sky Sports. Also See: Hammers have irons in the fire Sakho refuses West Ham tour Hammers face Shakhtyor/Domzale West Hams Europa lowdown Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' ' |
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